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This is the twice-weekly hidden open thread.

Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. I was playing with calibration.

As result I have quite anoon log of predictions with description, my predicted success chance, outcome, category of prediction. Is there somebody here that would consider such tool useful?

Or is somebody aware about similar, already existing tools?

On behalf of the banned, Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops want to host the SF discussion and lead discussions until the period of exile has been Hot horney women in Tarabya Some poster asked for a list of good Hanson posts Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops one of the google anons piped up and linked out the most offensive thing Hanson ever wrote. Fair enough IMO.

But before Scott posted Jamie had already linked a follow up to the original blog post. Nonetheless, he got a temp ban out of the kerfuffle too. I liked this article by Charles Murray from the National Review.

He znon no fan of Trump. He basically argues that yeah, Clinton is wnon about everything, but Trump is so freakishly wrong about everything and would make such a terrible leader that Clinton is actually better. I wonder what hotle white supremacists are going think about one of their heroes voting against one of their other heroes.

One of my favorite quotes:. As if some sort of balance between competing interests has to be found—in politics!

Open Thread | Slate Star Codex

Also, anybody knows where to find good stuff about mass psychogenic illness? Particularily interested in so called laughter epidemics and everyday echopraxia-like behaviour like contagious yawning. I have made a userscript that randomizes email whenever you post. Do tell me if it does work with Greasemonkey, or if it has any bugs. It makes it more inconvenient for Scott to Local pussy Anchorage people in Ns way that they will notice.

Bans are, of course, to some extent on the honor system, but that only works if you notice being banned. Just pick a string and stick with it for a while. This is precisely the problem.

I do not want to stick with a string for a while, especially since I might forget to change it and I do forget. Next thing I know some Archivist connects two unrelated comments as if they are supposed to be utterly consistent at face value without any consideration of the context for both. I do not want to use the new full-anon email, because that is a spiritual evasion of the old full-anon ban.

Anln thing I know some Archivist connects two unrelated comments as if they are supposed to be utterly consistent. So keeping an eye out Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops gotel failings is a waste of effort. To me it seems like you Casual Dating Lanett Alabama 36863 invented a way to stop Scott from ever usefully implementing the full-anon ban. The only difference between full-anon Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops changing gravatars every post that I can see is that full-anons all look alike, making following conversations somewhat difficult especially referring to specific posters — this was one of the chief complaints levied against it.

I see. Randomized avatars would not make discussions any easier to follow, but they might counteract the resentment accumulation problem somewhat, if only on the most superficial level.

Note that, even without the script, multiple anons have stated that they regularly change emails. Could a neuroscientist understand a microprocessor? Indeed, it has a hard time distinguishing it from a brain, even though we know they work very differently. The GRIM test — a useful and very simple test when checking whether a paper may have faked its data, or had something else go wrong: Are the given Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops compatible with the given sample sizes and granularity of the data?

Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops

This Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops to catch a surprising amount of stuff not all of it exactly errors, but things that Looking for a girl a friend hopefully more underexplained at least. Of course, if it becomes standard, fakers will account for it, but even so…. Said student has ended this year without making any friends except sort of the guys who work at a pizzeria he frequents.

Since he finds life as a very long peninsula, if not an island, very unsatisfying, what should he do to find an IRL community of likeminded people? One idea: Work as a TA for large class so that there are other TAs to interact withor in a tutoring lab, or in a writing help lab, or in the library?

During the loneliest part of my time in college 2nd year my shifts in the physics tutorial lab were the best parts of my week and it led to a few friendships. People who seek out and qualify for these sorts of jobs are self-selecting for the kind of nerdiness you are probably interested in.

Other, bog-standard idea: Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops wife recommends folk-dancing, and if David Friedman passes through he will too. Anything that you are somewhat interested in and actually meets regularly is fine, and then actually attend regularly. Joining these sorts of things in the summer if you stay around may even be the best time.

College is the best place to find people with Nsw sorts of interests you describe, but one sometimes gets unlucky. I started and ended sophomore year with basically no friends and not for lack of trying! The next summer I moved in a with a kind-of-friend from freshman year and somehow that apartment complex was packed with all sorts of cool people and I made many friends, including my wife.

Media coverage has tended to treat this study as conclusive proof that mobile phones present a cancer risk. Does anyone else have experience with reports from the NTP? Is tbtm some good reason for the NTP to be doing a bunch of things that look very much like P-hacking?

Thinking about EU referendum — like most political questions, it will not be decided by Sexy wife want nsa Maidstone, but by identity. If they genuinely Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops against you yes but usually such people will not associate with you at all.

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Imagine a world in which Gore had won, hands down, in comparing Bernie to Nader. I see this a lot: Imagine how different the world would have been. But would it really? Might not the same forces otherwise pushing Bush to do something stupid like that also have worked on him? Would anything else have been appreciably different besides the Iraq War?

There is the President as green lantern thing and we need to be aware of it and on guard. That said, a different President is a lot more than a butterfly Ladies looking nsa CA San diego 92108 Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops wings in Brazil.

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Not only domestically but in Europe as well. Sure a President Gore would have had to follow the trail to Afghanistan one way or another, but what else would he have used that moment of opportunity to do?

Especially given that there was and would have been economic damage from the attacks — we are looking at domestic and foreign opportunities for major timeline divergence. Gore would clearly not have started the Iraq War. Probably would have went to war with Afghanistan which far ffor people disagreed with.

My opinion on Bush v. Gore FWIW: Gore would almost certainly have invaded Afghanistan but not Iraq.

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Without the distraction of Iraq, the occupation of Afghanistan would have been much more likely to marginalize the Taliban and result in a stable Afghan government. On the other hand, a hands-off-Iraq policy makes Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops Arabia less likely to crack down on domestic Al Qaeda recruitment and financing — doing that means a local insurgency, maybe not a big one, but why court even a small local insurgency when the opportunistic Saddam Hussein is right across the border and the United States is busy elsewhere?

Historically, the Saudis did nothing of substance about Al Beautiful adult wants sex encounter Nashville Tennessee for a year and a half, then cracked down the month the US invaded Iraq.

And nobody had much reason to do anything about Tunisia, so the Arab Spring probably happens right on schedule — with Hussein still in power in Iraq. You thought Libya and Syria were bad?

Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops

I count that as one probable win Sarah MS sexy women in a Gore presidency, two possible big losses later on. Especially if this action killed Hussein, Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops seems likely that some Libya-style chaos would result. A Kurdish separatist movement in the north seems inevitable, as does some attempt by Iran to either annex Basra or install a puppet regime in the Shiite-dominated regions.

Hard to say what the outcome would be, but also hard to believe that the US would manage to avoid involving itself somehow with boots on the ground. Pivoting away from the Arabian peninsula is really only practical if you have A: Good point.

Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops might not have happened at all. Perhaps taking the threat more seriously hoel have resulted in actually preventing the tragedy. Not so much because of the lives not lost on that day though they matter too, of coursebut because of the huge negative repercussions for many different aspects of American life and foreign policy. But this seems unlikely for the same reason the response to Katrina would not likely have been better under Gore: Deep govmt and all that.

With the prospect of a growing imbalance of spending and revenues as the baby boomers age into retirement https: All his advisors would have been rightly IMO calling for stimulus.

Unlikely it would have been tax cuts but surpluses would have been off the table at least for a while. Maybe there would have been some small stimulus inbut without the Iraq War and the Bush tax cuts revenues fpr have presumably exceeded outlays Swingers in McKinley Park at least. Which means probably no Obama presidency. Though who Nsa Gimli bttm in hotel for anon tops if they would still have come up with McCain in this alternate world.

May 27, at 9: Since the rise in housing prices began in http: